Then, following his return to the White House in January 2025, Trump became the first politician ever to demand the Nobel Peace Prize. In the fall, he claimed to have personally ended “eight wars in just eight months.” But the prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. Snubbed, Trump became a warmonger, intervening in Venezuela and abducting its president in January, and, together with Israel, going to war against Iran.
Trump seems to have assumed that, as in Venezuela, eliminating Iran’s top political and military leaders—above all Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and figures such as Ali Larijani—would topple or neutralize the regime overnight. When Iran instead responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz and attacking critical infrastructure across the Middle East, Trump found himself in an instant quagmire war, with no clearly defined objectives and no strategy beyond wishful thinking.
Once again, the harsh, unforgiving realities of the Middle East have caught up with an American president who went to war under the illusion of US omnipotence. The Iranian regime has not only proven stable but managed to expand the war to the entire region (the “gas station of the global economy”) while enjoying windfall revenues from its own oil exports, which are among the only shipments still transiting the strait. As a result, the US-Israeli “excursion” against the Islamic Republic has spiraled into a global economic crisis and soured the political mood among American voters ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
The Iranian regime remains firmly in the saddle, with no intention of giving up. Surviving a full-scale onslaught by the world’s military superpower and the regionally dominant power, while retaining 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium and its missile and drone capabilities, would be an unprecedented triumph.
Likewise, failure by the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and guarantee the secure passage of oil and gas shipments would be a highly visible defeat, with far-reaching regional and global implications. America’s rivals and adversaries would have proof of the hegemon’s decline—giving them a green light to pursue their own foreign-policy excursions around the world.
Like the war in Ukraine, the war with Iran highlights an ongoing revolution in battlefield technologies and tactics. Cheap drones, mass-produced and deployed with the help of AI, now allow lesser powers to stand up to the most advanced, expensive Western and Russian military technologies. The principle of asymmetric warfare that led the US to fail in Iraq and Afghanistan applies now more than ever: “You may have the watches, but we have the time.”
Suppose the US ultimately is defeated in the Gulf and the Iranian regime remains in power and in control of its nuclear program. The Islamic Republic’s influence in the Gulf will have been strengthened decisively, and its grip on the throat of the global economy will be even tighter. As it continues to pursue its nuclear and missile programs, Israel’s elimination of its regional proxies will gradually cease to matter.
Europe, for its part, still insists that Trump’s war is not its war. But outside of the Middle East, it is Europe that will bear the brunt of the consequences. Like the war in Ukraine, this one is taking place on Europe’s doorstep. Whether Europeans like it or not, they are implicated in it. Prolonged destabilization of the Middle East will affect their security more than anyone else’s. Unlike China and the US, Europe and the eastern Mediterranean are within reach of Iran’s ballistic missiles.
The Trump administration entered this war with utter disregard for the lessons that the US learned the hard way in Iraq and Afghanistan, and without the slightest attempt to coordinate with its European allies. At the same time, the signs of America withdrawing support for Ukraine are becoming impossible to ignore.
With yet another dangerous geopolitical crisis unfolding on its doorstep, Europe finds itself completely alone. Europeans, too, must not ignore the lessons of past decade. Genuine security requires doing what is necessary to make Europe a sovereign power in its own right.
