The Essentials

• The future entity would have a market share of 13.4%, placing it 3rd in the Moroccan insurance market.
• The operation would create a larger group with a strengthened customer base, a more diversified portfolio between Life and Non-Life, and a network exceeding 740 contact points before competitive adjustments.
• Allianz Maroc brings significant support in Life, corporate, SMEs, and certain technical branches, while Sanlam Maroc maintains a strong position in major Non-Life branches.
• In Life, Allianz Maroc shows a growth of 66.8% in H1-2025, whereas Sanlam Maroc declines by 38.1% after the end of the bancassurance partnership with Crédit du Maroc.
• Analysts anticipate a gradual improvement in technical ratios, with a Non-Life S/P expected at 74.5% in 2026 compared to 76.7% in 2025.
• In the stock market, the merger would also change the outlook for the Sanlam Maroc stock, with a post-merger theoretical price of 2,145 DH and a target price set at 3,011 DH, representing a 40% potential increase according to BKGR.

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The Details

The realization of the merger-acquisition project of Allianz Maroc by Sanlam Maroc is expected to take place at the beginning of July 2026. As previously explained by an authorized source from Sanlam to Médias24, "the merger-acquisition process is progressing in accordance with the set deadlines and in strict compliance with the regulatory framework. Sanlam and Allianz are well on track to finalize the structural commitments with the Competition Council."

It is important to note that the coming together of Sanlam Maroc and Allianz Maroc goes back further than just the Moroccan market. As early as the end of 2021, Sanlam and Allianz had announced their decision to consolidate their operations in Africa, excluding South Africa. This project has progressed gradually, in line with regulatory authorizations, leading to the creation of SanlamAllianz, a joint venture present today in twenty-five countries across the continent.

In Morocco, the process has followed a path guided by competition rules. The two companies were initially kept separate through a "hold separate" arrangement. The controlled lifting of this arrangement then paved the way for the merger-acquisition project of Allianz Maroc by Sanlam Maroc.

Within this framework, how do the two groups complement each other? What position can the new entity hold in the Moroccan insurance market? What can Allianz bring to the commercial and technical profile of Sanlam Maroc? And in the stock market, what interpretation should be made after the merger, considering the changes in scope, number of shares, and the earning capacity of the group scaling up?

Indeed, a larger player

The objective of this merger would naturally be to establish a benchmark insurer, more efficient and better capitalized. Operationally, the merger aims to combine the resources and expertise of both entities, accelerate digital innovation, enhance service quality, and strengthen the territorial network to provide greater proximity to policyholders.

Upon completion of the operation, Sanlam Maroc is expected to reach a new milestone in the Moroccan insurance market. The new entity would have a market share of 13.4%, placing it in 3rd position in the sector. It would also benefit from a broader customer base and improved risk diversification. Commercially, the addition of both networks also gives an idea of the size of the future group: Sanlam has over 500 general agents, while Allianz Maroc has more than 240 agents and direct offices. Before adjustments related to competitive commitments, the future entity would have thus represented over 740 agencies.

By the end of 2025, the combination of achievements of Sanlam Maroc and Allianz Maroc provides an initial glimpse into the size of the future entity.

A Complementarity Mainly Evident in the Future Entity's Mix

According to BKGR analysts, the interest of the operation lies primarily in the complementarity between the two companies. Sanlam Maroc comes with a broader base, especially in Non-Life, where the group maintains a strong presence in major market branches, including automotive, health-maternity, work accidents, and fire. Allianz Maroc, on the other hand, brings more targeted relays, capable of broadening the commercial profile of the future entity and improving its business mix.

This complementarity is more pronounced in Life. In H1-2025, Allianz Maroc shows a 66.8% growth in this activity, reaching 296.6 million MAD, while Sanlam Maroc declines by 38.1%, to 256.9 million MAD, following the termination of the bancassurance contract with Crédit du Maroc. "This contribution gives Allianz a specific role in the Moroccan scope: the company adds volume, but especially a dynamic in a branch that has become more critical for Sanlam Maroc."

In Non-Life, the analysis differs. Sanlam Maroc maintains a commercial advantage in mass branches, while Allianz complements the portfolio in certain segments, including corporate clients, SMEs, automotive, and technical branches like natural elements. The operation thus allows preserving the weight of Sanlam Maroc in Non-Life, while enriching the client portfolio and further diversifying the commercial engines of the future entity.

This can be seen as a rebalancing of the mix. The new entity would retain the very Non-Life DNA of Sanlam Maroc, with a more visible contribution from Allianz in Life and in certain professional segments. In other words, the merger changes the scale of the group, but it also alters the composition of its portfolio, which becomes crucial in assessing the post-merger trajectory.

A Scale Change to Enhance Technical Efficiency

As explained by BKGR analysts, "Allianz historically did not have a technical profile superior to that of Sanlam. In 2024, it still showed 1,533.3 million MAD in claims expenses, a Non-Life S/P ratio of 80.9%, a combined ratio of 124%, a technical result of -112.5 million MAD, and a net result of -108.5 million MAD."

"It should be noted that the deficit year 2024 was exceptional considering the company's history, mainly impacted by the rise in claims. The merger cannot be equated with an automatic lever for improving technical performance. However, the 2025 data significantly alters the interpretation. By the end of 2025, Allianz shows a Non-Life S/P ratio of 75.5%, a reduced combined ratio of 116.3%, a positive technical result and net result of 182 million MAD and 262 million MAD respectively. This suggests an already initiated normalization of the Allianz portfolio, reinforcing the coherence of the post-merger scenario," they add.

"According to our forecasts, the Non-Life S/P ratio would decrease from 76.7% in 2025 to 74.5% in 2026, then 74.1% in 2027, before reaching 73.5% in 2030. This trajectory would be based on a progressive improvement fueled by risk pooling, mix rebalancing, and the integration of an already normalizing Allianz portfolio."

"In this perspective, the evolution of the operating ratio should be interpreted not as a mere extraction of synergies, but as the result of a progressive scale change. In Life, the integration of Allianz would inject a new dynamic with a ratio expected to decrease from 16.4% in 2025 to 15.8% in 2026, then 15.1% in 2027, before reaching 13.3% in 2030, benefiting from the regained critical mass and significantly denser Life activity, driven by Allianz's strong growth in 2024 and H1-2025."

"In Non-Life, the trajectory would be more linear but equally significant, with a ratio expected to decrease from 27.4% in 2025 to 26.0% in 2026, 25.6% in 2027, then 25% in 2030. Sanlam already had a solid base in automotive and health."

Allianz's contribution would particularly boost the Enterprise and Automotive lines, which performed well in 2024. In other words, the merger acts less through direct cost cutting than through a mix rebalancing and improved network productivity, diluting fixed costs and gradually enhancing overall efficiency.

Valuation and Shareholding Evolution

According to BKGR analysts, the valuation of the future entity would amount to 11.5 billion MAD based on the Sanlam Maroc price on March 12, 2026, at 2,150 DH, for a post-merger theoretical price of 2,145 DH. Considering the chosen parity of 2 Allianz Maroc shares for 5 Sanlam Maroc shares, the implied price used in the operation would be 2,127 DH, a level deemed close to the stock price on March 12, 2026, as well as the former analysts' target price.

In the stock market, why Sanlam should be reassessed on a post-merger basis

In the stock market, the merger first changes the basis for evaluating the Sanlam Maroc stock. The current price displayed alone is no longer sufficient to assess the stock's potential, as the operation will alter the number of shares in circulation and thus the usual valuation benchmarks.

According to BKGR analysts, the current price of Sanlam Maroc must be distinguished from the theoretical post-merger price. The latter is recalculated on a homogeneous basis, after considering the capital increase reserved for Allianz Maroc shareholders. In other words, to correctly compare the stock before and after the operation, one must consider the expanded capital of the future entity, not just the previous scope of Sanlam alone.

In detail, the merger is based on a parity of 2 Allianz Maroc shares for 5 Sanlam Maroc shares. The operation would lead to the creation of 1,225,000 new Sanlam Maroc shares, bringing the total number of shares post-merger to 5,341,874. Based on this, BKGR identifies a theoretical post-merger price of 2,145 DH. It is from this level that the research bureau calculates its stock potential, not from the face value of 3,120 DH.

This point is crucial to avoid a misleading interpretation of the upside potential. BKGR sets its target price at 3,011 DH. Relative to the theoretical post-merger price of 2,145 DH, this target reveals an appreciation potential of 40%. This justifies the "Buy" recommendation on the stock.

The analysts' logic is therefore based on a simple idea: after the merger, Sanlam Maroc should be viewed as a group with an expanded scope, possessing a larger earning capacity. BKGR thus forecasts a net result of 856 million MAD in 2026, then 971 million MAD in 2027, compared to 452 million MAD in 2025. This expected profit increase would better absorb the rise in the number of shares and support the stock's valuation.

The valuation remains demanding. According to BKGR, the P/E ratio would still stand at 19.5x in 2026, before decreasing to 17.2x in 2027, due to the anticipated rise in net profit. The stock market assessment is therefore based on a clear assumption: the market must consider Sanlam Maroc not only through its current scope but also through the profit trajectory of the future Sanlam-Allianz entity.

Fusion Sanlam-Allianz : réseaux, emplois, contrats… ce qui se prépare en coulisses